One of the biggest developments in baseball over the last 15-20 years is the increase in fastball velocity. Every year, MLB pitchers are throwing harder than they were before. According to Baseball America, the average four-seam fastball in 2007 was 91.9 mph. In 2023, the average four-seam fastball rose to 94.2 mph. Moreover, over the past 16 years, there has never been a season where the average fastball velocity has dipped from the previous year.
While it's always fun to see a pitcher like Aroldis Chapman or Ben Joyce light up a radar gun, some negative externalities have seemingly come with the increases in velocity. The rise of pitcher injuries and decline of offense in the game have been well-documented in recent years. However, another problem that hasn't been talked about a lot is the safety of hitters facing said velocity.
It's no secret that talent evaluators across all levels of baseball are emphasizing velocity more than ever. Pitchers who throw hard inherently generate more swing and miss than those who don't. In this analytical era, front offices and coaches love to minimize risk. While pitch to contact pitchers still can be tremendously effective in the game today, having more strikeout pitchers limits the chance seeing-eye-singles bleed through the infield or wind-aided homeruns blow over the fence in a critical spot in the game.
This has created more of an incentive for pitchers to focus on adding velocity in lieu of improving control and command. While the elite pitchers in the game are able to locate with 95+ mph fastballs, the reality is that there aren't many pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, and Chris Sale around who are able to do both consistently.
As velocities keep rising and command oriented pitchers decrease, batters are more vulnerable to serious injuries as a result from being hit by a pitch. According to Jayson Stark of The Athletic, hit by pitch rates have nearly doubled since the 1960s and have steadily increased each year since. In recent years, players like Giancarlo Stanton, James McCann, Willie Calhoun, and Taylor Ward have been hit in the face. Moreover, there have been a proliferation of serious hand and elbow injuries resulting from hit by pitches as well.
Absent when umpires deem the action is intentional, pitchers currently face no consequences for hitting batters. However, as more injuries and/or scary episodes add up, discipline could be coming for pitchers.
A day after he was hit in the back of the head by a 95 mph fastball, Whit Merrifield of the Atlanta Braves predicted the MLB Competition Committee he serves on will have a rule in place by next season with penalties for pitchers who hit batters with similar high-and-inside fastballs.
“Yeah, we’ll have something in place by the time the season starts next year,” Merrifield said. “I’d be shocked if we didn’t.”
Merrifield is among many players who want a rule punishing pitchers for plunking hitters with fastballs that break hands and wrists or hit players in the head or neck. He said the competition committee, consisted of MLB team officials, umpires, and players, were receptive to the idea.
"Where the game's at right now, it's just ridiculous. I hate where the game's at right now with that," Merrifield said after the game. The way pitchers are throwing now, there's no regard for throwing up and in. The guys are throwing as hard as they can, they don't care where the ball goes.
Other sports have enacted various punishments relating to dangerous conduct. The NFL has ejected, fined, and suspended players for helmet-to-helmet hits. College football employs the targeting rule where players are flagged and ejected. The NBA has levels of flagrant violations as does soccer. In fact, MLB is actually somewhat of an outlier right now when it comes to policing dangerous plays in the game.
How exactly these punishments could come about is certainly up in the air. Questions around what qualifies as a "dangerous" hit by pitch will need to be ironed out. Is it a simple black-and-white rule where a pitcher is automatically ejected if they hit a batter in the head? What about when a pitcher breaks a batter's wrist? Will umpires have the discretion to determine which pitches constitute as an ejection? All of this will need to be parsed out before any discipline goes into effect. The MLBPA will be heavily involved to protect pitchers against any unreasonable fines or suspensions as well.
Nonetheless, this will be an interesting development to follow in the coming months. Merrifield's prediction that a rule will be in place by Opening Day 2025 seems aggressive, but he has more inside information than the rest of us. Most importantly though, player safety concerns should rule the day in the end.
Brendan Bell is a 2L at SMU Dedman School of Law and is the Southwest Regional Rep on Conduct Detrimental's Law School Student Board. He can be followed on Twitter (X) @_bbell5